With less than three months to go until the US presidential election, the anti-China train in Washington is roaring full steam ahead.
From bans on Huawei, TikTok and WeChat to recommendations to delist US-listed Chinese companies and cancellation of trade talks – not to mention military drills in the South China Sea and sanctions on Hong Kong officials over the national security law – US President Donald Trump has well and truly gone out of his way to make China-bashing his top policy priority for a second term.
Yet, for all these efforts, it must be disheartening to find that about 60 per cent of respondents in the latest Gallup poll disapproved of Trump’s handling of US-China relations. Not only was this figure higher than the 48 per cent last year, the public also thought he was doing a worse job on China than on crime, foreign affairs and the economy.
It is no surprise that the American public has taken issue with Trump’s (mis)handling of China. This is not because Americans hold China in high regard.
Quite the opposite: US public opinion has decidedly soured on China, driven by political vitriol and constant fearmongering in the media.
Yet, Americans are also increasingly questioning whether the US has benefited from making China a cold war enemy, and wondering if their government is spending too much time and effort to force change in China, while leaving plenty of urgent matters at home unattended.
Take the centrepiece of Trump’s economic policy – the US-China trade war – as an example. Two years of tit-for-tat tariff exchanges have led to a dramatic decline in trade flows between the two countries.
But did Americans at least get a bigger slice of the shrinking pie? Not according to research from the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, which showed that nearly all the costs of higher import duties were borne by US firms and consumers.
One thing that the tariffs did achieve was forcing China out of the US market. Our research shows that China has lost almost 2 percentage points of its share of imports to the US between 2017 and 2019. Hence, if the trade war was intended to reduce the US’ dependency on “Made in China” goods, it would have succeeded somewhat.
According to official data, China’s monthly trade surplus with the US has averaged about US$27 billion since July 2018, up from an average of US$21 billion in the prior five years. In fact, the US’ overall trade deficit has risen from US$41 billion a month to US$48.4 billion over the same period.
Source: SCMP
