Beijing uncertain about what a Biden win means for China

The facts: While many world leaders have rushed to congratulate Joe Biden for his projected win of the US presidential election, China’s government kept silent for days. President Xi Jinping’s hesitation may have been caused by a lack of certainty over what a Biden administration means for US-China relations.

While Biden is expected to take a different approach from Trump on foreign policy generally, given bipartisan support for a more competitive relationship with Beijing, he is unlikely to change policy toward China. He is, however, likely to want to strengthen ties with allies in Europe and the Indo-Pacific in order to try to create a more unified approach to China, and he may well try to engage Beijing on issues of global and mutual interest, such as climate change and the environment, or public health.

For the domestic audience, Beijing has concentrated its efforts on presenting the US elections as a “mess”. Instead of acknowledging that Biden has gone past the 270 electoral college votes required to win the election, Chinese state media chose to report it as the American media who declared Biden the victor, focusing on riots in the streets and the divisions in US politics. China is using Trump’s challenge to the results of the US election as a foil to present itself as the more rational and, ultimately, superior governance system.

What to watch: A Biden presidency is likely to bring more opportunities for transatlantic cooperation on China, potentially making it easier for European countries to take stronger action against some of China’s most damaging activities, from human rights violations in Xinjiang to IP theft and unfair trade practices.

MERICS analysis: In China the expectation is that US-China relations will generally remain tense and antagonistic but with the hope that on some issues, such as the trade war and Taiwan, they may improve under Biden’s presidency. But Biden’s likely attempt to get global allies on board with a more assertive China policy would be bad news for Beijing and its efforts to present itself as a responsible global power – a tactic that has worked well during Trump’s presidency.

More on the topic: “Trump loses, Biden wins – and Xi remains on notice” – opinion piece by MERICS analyst François Chimits.

Media coverage and sources:

• Washington Post: Beijing isn’t betting on US-China détente under Biden
• Global Times: What next for China-US relations? 
• SCMP: China foreign ministry stops short of congratulating Biden
• MFA (Chinese): Why China hasn’t congratulated Biden yet
• Sina (Chinese): What can be expected from a Biden presidency
• Baidu (Chinese): Commentary on what Biden may mean for US-China relations
• Reuters: China’s tech industry relieved about Biden’s win